Philadelphia Reflections

China Bubble

Foreign Money

China's rise to prosperity is the biggest, fastest industrial revolution in human history. Arriving two hundred years late, naturally, it has disruptive effects on the rest of the world. The Chinese want most to avoid a revolution, but also want to prolong the bonanza phase of their cycle. America must first avoid getting swamped by this tidal wave of foreign money. After that, adjust to an inevitable outcome: a more powerful China, but one with far slower growth, maybe a recession or two. Their wages must rise so our wages may rise; a future difficulty for both countries, with hyperinflation a danger. The Pacific Ocean may not prove as peaceful as we hope, but first, we must get through the Straits of Magellan.

Although the financial storms had been brewing ever since Richard Nixon visited China, the violent arrival of these issues first burst in on the American public during vacation, in the middle of sunny August, 2007.

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Originally published: Sunday, July 06, 2008; most-recently modified: Wednesday, May 15, 2019